From 2010: Within 10 years oil shortages may collapse global economy
Oil reserves in Iran, according to its government, rank third largest in the world at approximately 150 billion barrels (24×109 m3) as of 2007, although it ranks second if Canadian reserves of unconventional oil are excluded. This is roughly 10% of the world’s total proven petroleum reserves. Iran is the world’s fourth largest oil producer and is OPEC’s second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia.
Here is more from the report:
“For example: Germany would have to be more flexible in relation toward Russia’s foreign policy objectives. It would also have to show more restraint in its foreign policy toward Israel, to avoid alienating Arab oil-producing nations. Unconditional support for Israel and its right to exist is currently a cornerstone of German foreign policy.”
In essence Israels excistance is under threat.
But thats a worst case scenario.
It does not have to lead to a collapse…
This could be dampened by going to a more local economy which would create new jobs.
Peak Oil & $225 Oil by 2012 Predicts CIBC Economist Jeff Rubin
Notice that he thinks the current recession was started by an oil price peak in 2008…
Here is a more detailed view.