A more measured (if sobering) interview than the headline suggests:
Italy went from 3 to 3000 cases within 2 weeks.
Some experts think 50% to 70% of world pop could become infected over time.
Singapore has been a good model for containment.
Contact tracing/ isolation and school closures could be important (schools often amplify flu).
Any deaths in a country signify that the virus has been circulating for at least weeks.
Potential for global pandemic with mortality many times that of flu.
Vaccine at least 12 to 18 months away, which would still be a record and no where near billions of doses in production. Should go to most vulnerable when available.
Think of older more vulnerable people before exposing them to your colds.
Moonshot attitude on vaccine, Blitz Spirit on prevention.
… That still is 0,004 percent of Spanish people, so I am not sure, if it wise to care at all yet. Just wash your hands, do not kiss anybody and give your old parents a friendly advice each month?
Always wise to care about a risk with exponential growth potential!
The thing that got me following this closely from end of Jan was seeing the Chinese reactions like the video @TheBellows posted in the OP. Blocking roads and people into their appartments etc. didn’t seem like a reaction to something they thought was Flu-like/ normal.
There was then the building of a hospital in a week and then the virus spreading to cruise ships and other countries showing that even with the extreme measures they implemented it wasn’t going to be contained.
I’d say do what you think is necessary to limit your exposure where possible until more is known. Even if it feels like an over-reaction now, hopefully things will start to look better as they play out. Of course we can only do our best given individual circumstances.
You may have a window of opportunity to make things a bit easier for yourself with a bit of stocking-up and planning in case of quarrantine (not forgetting medications if necessary). Also keeping in conversation with family, friends and neighbours in case you need to help each other out if limited travel hits.
In Spain, massive festivities that move millions of euros in tourism are being suspended (Magdalena in Castellón, Fallas in Valencia, etc). This is not just the impact of the virus, they are jobs, business movements, uncertainty, temporary layoffs, profit brakes, central government measures packages. Actually, quarantine is the least important. We will be like this for several weeks, with a problem that affects the entire population.
This is a matter that affects other countries in a short time. This is the responsibility of the entire population. Here it is not worth blaming governments. Citizen responsibility is fundamental! I hope your situation is not serious in Italy. They are really having problems with the population there.
Inform yourself correctly and trust the health professionals. Much encouragement to all!
I don’t know exactly what situation you have in Germany.
In Spain, I know that the numbers are published every day, even in a matter of hours. Everything is going very fast and we are hyper saturated with information about the coronavirus everywhere.
The speed of the update of the data, make the news ceases to be news in a few hours, because another news has been published more quickly updated. If you look at numbers from 2 days ago, you are in prehistory.
It’s easy to see outdated headlines on the internet.
This is true also itzz Total Confirmed
1,457 no in Germany total & in BERLIN 48.
They seemz to let it spread and see what happenzz to the poultion over here so more like let them get thrue it and then itz hopefuly over. And deathratezz still not too bad.
Those John Hopkins numbers seem to match the worldometers numbers. They say they were last updated “March 10, 2020, 23:35 GMT”. So should be as current/accurate as they can manage.
Woww thatz evn higher than the 1100 to 1300 in the newzz?!! But if it doessnt Mutate or something getzz more agresiveee or so. We might be fine after it went thruee.
The death rates seam to be increasing though and we have to look at the bigger picture. Do whatever you can to avoid being infected is my advice. Even if you’re not afraid of your own health this is to avoid that too many people become infected and in need of medical care at the same time. It is not a Good time for medical personnel.
This vid is a few days old but some interesting info and gives some early explaination of the S vs. L strain. From what I can gather:
S type = older - less severe disease but faster spreading
L type = more severe disease that took ahold in Wuhan (70% of cases) newer but now less common vs. S
Who knows though, with what is happening in Italy. They could have the L type or maybe some other strain?
Also with a different view some quotes from a scientist at Reading (March 5th):
Viruses are always mutating in every patient:
Viruses are always mutating, especially RNA viruses like this one, coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. When a person is infected with the coronavirus, it replicates in their respiratory tract. Every time it does, around half a dozen genetic mutations occur, says Ian Jones at the University of Reading, UK.
These may not even be separate strains:
The differences between the two identified strains are tiny. In fact, they can’t really be considered to be separate “strains”, says Jones. And many of the genetic differences won’t affect the production of proteins, and so won’t change the way the virus works, or the symptoms it causes, he says. One is not more deadly than the other.
No evidence that any worse
“In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged,” says Jones. “There’s no evidence it is getting any worse.” The sentiment is echoed by the World Health Organization. The study by Tang and colleagues only suggests there is some genetic diversity of the virus – it doesn’t mean it is changing, a representative told New Scientist .
